In the near future we are going to provide the means for our clients to make projections for their future savings based on the potential probabilities which, out of neccesity, must logically derive from past performance. That is to say, one has to rely to some degree on the mechanical system he has chosen to follow because it has exhibited a good track record. Why else would he follow the system had it not navigated well through the ups and downs of the past? Changing market sentiment is constantly pushing prices down or pulling prices up. The true worth of a trend following plan is determined by how well it defines the "Turning Points", and more importantly, by how well it limits the drawdowns that are inevitable in any form of market play..
We realize that past performance cannot guarantee future results. On the other hand, if one can not plan for superior future performance with a trend following system that has an excellent past track record, then why would that person bother with following that system at all? To put it another way......While history does not repeat exactly, the maket cycle you are involved in today will tend to rhyme well with a ghost of the past. The trades and their outcome will probably rhyme too.
In view of the fact that our system generates its signals in an objective manner, there is no ability to change what has already been recorded. However, if changes are made to the basic system, and these changes produce more reliable trading signals, then we must account for these changes by backtesting the system against the actual price data that existed on each and every trading day. There have been no changes made to the Long Term Retirement plan since 1996.
I have had many people ask me what indexes and /or mutual funds they should use with our system. We can not give you this kind of specific advice, but I can tell you what we use in our own accounts. We use various derivitves of the Nasdaq-100 Index. I have listed these on our "Description" page.
You may well be participating in a 401k plan, an annuity, or an IRA where your choices for funds to use is limited. If this is youe situation, we can help in an important way:
Juat send us the name and trading symbol of any investment vehicle you want to evaluate.
We will "hypothetically" trade this item using the exact trades we have made over the past thirteen years. You will be able to see how it traded versus how it performed in a buy and hold plan. You will be able to examine the risk involved for its appropriate trading method. You will also see how it performed as compared to trading the Nasdaq-100 index funds. The results will be returned to you on an Excel spreadsheet, which shall reflect the exact trading dates as depicted in our STT Performance Spreadsheet. Send your request to the following email address: StrategicTrendTiming@gmail.com
Disclaimer: We have given our system the "acid" test and we have high confidence in its continued success. The system is powered by a totally mechanical engine. The fuel for the engine is a complex array of probability mathematics. The system's efficiency is over 70% (wins over losses), and the wins have been more than twice as large as the losses. Hence, the performance shown above. However, losses do occur and can be expected to occur about 30% of the time. So, please understand that past results do not guarantee future results. We will give no specific advice, nor will we make specific recommendations. What you see here is how we and our friends handle our accounts. If you should choose to follow our lead on this journey we certainly welcome you, but you will remain responsible for your own due diligence and the actions you choose to take.